When going into hyperspace for the first time, Akton gives the probabilities of various catastrophes happening to the ship: 40% total disintegration, 30% molecular ignition, 20% gamma contamination. Stella concludes that they have a 10% chance of survival. If they are independent events, then the overall probability would be calculated by multiplying the probabilities of surviving each one: 60% x 70% x 80%, resulting in 33.6%. However, there's no reason to suppose that the events are independent. It's more likely that he's stating the absolute probabilities that the ship will be destroyed by each catastrophe, in which case each figure already presumes that the other two catastrophes don't occur, and the probabilities are independent.
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05/03/2025 alle ore 09:07